Campaign promise meets economic reality
President Donald Trump marked 365 days in office this week after campaigning on a pledge to lower grocery prices “on Day 1.” One year into his second term, federal data shows that while a handful of grocery items have become cheaper, most Americans are still paying more at the checkout.
The overall cost of food at home has increased 2.4% over the past 12 months, according to the latest figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That rise has been uneven across categories, with some staples seeing particularly sharp increases.
Which grocery items cost more
Coffee prices have jumped about 20% compared with a year ago. Frozen fish and seafood are up 9%, lettuce prices have climbed 7%, and salad dressing costs about 6% more. Meat prices have also risen significantly, with overall meat costs up 9% and some steak cuts nearly 18% higher than last year.
These increases mean that even modest weekly grocery trips can add up to noticeably higher monthly expenses for households.
Local prices tell a mixed story
In addition to federal data, Nexstar reporters tracked prices at local grocery stores across the country. Their findings suggest that price changes vary widely by product and location.
At one grocery store in San Jose, California, a box of cookies dropped in price from $5.29 to $4.29. However, the package size also shrank from 12 ounces to 9.2 ounces, a clear example of shrinkflation. While the sticker price fell 19%, the reduced size meant shoppers were paying more per cookie.
Milk prices at the same store declined from $5.19 per gallon in early 2025 to $4.79 in 2026. National data shows that milk prices have edged down slightly overall.
Egg prices ease, beef prices persist
Eggs and beef highlight the diverging trends within grocery inflation. Egg prices surged in 2024 and 2025 due to a widespread bird flu outbreak that forced farms to cull entire flocks. Supply shortages led to purchase limits and restaurant surcharges.
Those pressures have since eased. Investments by the Department of Agriculture, increased egg imports, and recovering flocks have helped stabilize supply. The national average price for a dozen large grade-A eggs peaked at $6.23 last March but fell to $2.71 by December, the lowest level since May 2024.
Beef prices, however, remain elevated. A limited cattle supply driven by drought conditions and high herd maintenance costs continues to constrain production. Short-lived tariffs on beef imports last year also contributed to higher prices, though those tariffs were rolled back in November.
Why relief may take time
The national average price for a pound of ground chuck reached a high of $6.63 in August. Industry experts say the issue is structural rather than political. Nate Rempe, president and CEO of Omaha Steaks, previously cited strong demand and historically low herd sizes as key factors.
Agricultural economists note that cattle cycles take years to correct. While the industry is expected to eventually stabilize, meaningful price relief may not arrive until late next year or beyond.
For now, the data suggests that despite campaign promises, grocery prices remain a persistent challenge for American consumers.