Hawaii has experienced sustained population loss for most of the past quarter century, according to a new report from the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization. While the state’s high cost of living is widely known, the analysis finds that weak economic growth and slow wage gains are the deeper forces driving residents to leave, reshaping who can afford to remain in the islands.
Long Term Population Trends
The report shows that Hawaii has lost more residents than it has gained in 23 of the past 25 years. The state’s population peaked in 2018 and has declined in nearly every year since, largely due to residents relocating to the mainland. Economists say this pattern reflects structural challenges rather than short term economic cycles.
Cost of Living Pressures
Residents describe the financial strain as increasingly unmanageable. Groceries, housing, and everyday essentials cost far more than in most US states, while wages have failed to keep pace. Many families report struggling to cover basic expenses, even with full time employment.
Economists attribute these high prices to expensive land, labor, and production costs, particularly for food, which must often be imported. These factors have made affordability a long standing issue for local households.
Weak Economic Performance
Steven Bond-Smith, lead author of the report, said the more serious concern is Hawaii’s weak economic performance relative to the rest of the country. According to the analysis, the state is losing working families while attracting newcomers who can afford the lifestyle without relying on local wages.
Bond-Smith noted that those who work the hardest often face the greatest difficulty staying, as income growth has lagged behind rising costs.
Income Comparisons Across States
UHERO adjusted average incomes for Hawaii’s cost of living and compared them with other states. After this adjustment, Hawaii ranked near the bottom nationally, alongside states such as Alabama, West Virginia, and Mississippi. This suggests that high prices combined with slow productivity growth have eroded residents’ purchasing power.
Limits of Cost Reduction Alone
The report argues that lowering costs by itself would not resolve the issue. Even if affordability improves temporarily, slow wage and productivity growth would recreate the same pressures over time. Without stronger economic expansion, residents would continue to face limited opportunities to improve their standard of living.
Long Term Outlook
UHERO warns that continued population losses raise broader questions about Hawaii’s future. Without policies that boost productivity and income growth, the state risks becoming increasingly inaccessible to working families, altering the social and economic fabric of Hawaii.
Conclusion
The report concludes that Hawaii’s population decline is not simply a cost of living issue, but a reflection of long term economic underperformance. Unless growth accelerates and wages rise, the state is likely to keep losing residents who can no longer afford to build a future there.