Author: Jack Mulligan

Citi sees $75–$78 range if 1.1M bpd of Iranian exports are lost Brent crude prices may remain 15% to 20% above pre-conflict levels if ongoing Iran-Israel hostilities disrupt 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian oil exports, Citibank analysts said Thursday. This would keep prices in the $75 to $78 per barrel range, compared to around $65 in May. As of midday Thursday, Brent futures were up 1.9% at $78.18 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose 2.3% to $76.86. The upward trend reflects mounting geopolitical risk tied to potential supply disruptions in the Middle East. JP Morgan warns…

Bank eyes regional integration to boost M&A, equity activity Goldman Sachs is betting on a major overhaul of its Asia-Pacific operations to capture a greater share of the investment banking market and tap into what it calls “strong tailwinds” in the region. Iain Drayton, newly appointed head of the integrated APAC investment banking franchise, told Reuters the structural changes are already yielding results in deal activity and investor sentiment. Since September 2024, Goldman has merged its merger and acquisition (M&A) teams, aligned its financial and strategic investor groups, and introduced a capital solutions unit. In May, the bank completed a…

Auto sector hit hard amid rising trade tensions with U.S. Japan’s exports fell 1.7% year over year in May, marking the steepest decline since September 2024, according to data from the Ministry of Finance. While the drop was milder than the 3.8% contraction forecast by economists polled by Reuters, it reversed April’s 2% gain and underscored the country’s deepening trade challenges. Exports to key trading partners were notably weak. Shipments to the United States dropped 11.1%, while exports to China declined 8.8%. The auto sector was hit particularly hard, with global automobile exports down 6.9%. Exports of motor vehicles to…

Manufacturing remains weak despite auto and aerospace gains U.S. factory production edged up just 0.1% in May, according to Federal Reserve data released Tuesday, as solid gains in vehicle and aircraft manufacturing were offset by broader sector weakness. April’s data was revised downward to show a 0.5% decline, painting a fragile picture of the industrial economy. Manufacturing, which makes up 10.2% of the U.S. economy, is being strained by President Donald Trump’s shifting tariff policies. Recently doubled duties on steel and aluminum, alongside a 25% tariff on motor vehicles and parts, have raised input costs for producers and added uncertainty…

Global investment slowdown raises alarms for development Foreign direct investment (FDI) into developing economies plunged to $435 billion in 2023, its lowest level since 2005, according to a World Bank report released Monday. Advanced economies fared even worse, attracting only $336 billion — a figure not seen since 1996. The World Bank blamed the sharp decline on increasing trade barriers, economic fragmentation, and growing macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. These trends are threatening the ability of emerging economies to close infrastructure gaps and advance critical development goals. Policy barriers and recession fears hinder investment “The sharp drop in FDI to developing…

OpenAI has been awarded a $200 million contract by the U.S. Defense Department to develop artificial intelligence tools for national security, the Pentagon announced Monday. The contract underscores the growing role of AI technologies in U.S. defense operations and OpenAI’s expanding government partnerships. AI Tools for National Security According to the Pentagon, OpenAI will work on developing “prototype frontier AI capabilities” to address critical national security needs across both warfighting and enterprise domains. The contract’s work will primarily be conducted in and around Washington, D.C., with completion expected by July 2026. OpenAI’s Rapid Business Growth The contract comes as OpenAI…

Brazilian businessman Nelson Tanure has retained Rothschild & Co. to assist in bank negotiations crucial to his bid to acquire a controlling stake in Braskem, Latin America’s largest petrochemical company. The move signals progress in Tanure’s efforts to finalize a complex acquisition process involving multiple stakeholders. Negotiations for Controlling Stake in Braskem In late May, Tanure submitted a proposal to purchase conglomerate Novonor’s controlling interest in Braskem. The offer led to exclusive discussions between Tanure and Novonor as they evaluate the terms of a potential agreement. Novonor currently holds a significant share in Braskem, but many of these shares are…

Mortgage rates declined modestly this week but remain close to 7%, according to the latest data from Freddie Mac. While rate stability offers some relief, soaring home prices are keeping many buyers on the sidelines. Industry experts suggest the market may be nearing a shift as growing inventory meets waning demand. Mortgage Rates See Minor Decline Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported Thursday that the average rate on the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage edged down to 6.84% from last week’s 6.85%. One year ago, the 30-year rate stood at 6.95%. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate also slipped slightly to…

The U.S. dollar rallied sharply on Friday after reaching a three-year low the previous day, as escalating military conflict between Israel and Iran pushed investors into safe-haven assets. The sudden surge in geopolitical tensions drove significant market volatility, with sharp moves in currencies, oil, gold, and global equities. Safe-Haven Demand Lifts the Dollar The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, rose 0.3% to 98.19. The dollar also gained 0.1% against the Swiss franc and 0.4% against the Japanese yen, two other traditional safe-haven assets. ING strategists noted that the Israeli strikes provided “the oversold…

China Dominates Critical Minerals Supply Chain China’s control over critical minerals like rare earths has become a significant leverage point in U.S.-China trade negotiations. The country has spent decades establishing itself as the world’s primary industrial hub for mining and processing materials essential for industries such as electronics, advanced manufacturing, defense, and healthcare. Trade Impact and Tariff Controls In recent years, China has imposed export controls on key minerals, requiring licenses for shipments abroad. These controls have led to supply chain disruptions, particularly in the U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated that China will ease restrictions on rare earth minerals…