Rumors of BNY Mellon interest lift shares, but no deal in sight
Northern Trust has confirmed its commitment to staying independent following a Wall Street Journal report that Bank of New York Mellon expressed interest in a potential merger. The report triggered a 6.5% surge in Northern Trust shares, reflecting investor speculation despite no formal offer being made.
“Northern Trust is fully committed to remaining independent and continuing to deliver long-term value to our stakeholders,” a spokesperson said in a statement Monday.
The rumored merger would mark a seismic shift in the custody banking and wealth management industry, combining two of the sector’s most influential players. BNY Mellon, the world’s largest custodian bank, and Northern Trust both provide critical asset servicing and wealth management functions to institutional clients and financial advisers.
Regulatory scrutiny looms over potential deal
Despite the speculation, analysts see major roadblocks. Morningstar’s Rajiv Bhatia emphasized that any merger would face serious antitrust scrutiny, particularly given the already concentrated nature of the custody banking sector. Competitors such as JPMorgan, State Street, and Citigroup are likely to raise concerns.
“Category 1 and 2 banks still face higher regulatory barriers than regional banks,” analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods noted, referring to the systemic classification of institutions like BNY and Northern Trust.
While the Trump administration has taken a more relaxed stance on bank regulation—evidenced by the approved $35 billion Capital One–Discover deal—this particular transaction could still test the limits of regulatory approval.
Market dynamics suggest more M&A ahead
BNY Mellon has a market cap of $65.5 billion, while Northern Trust stands at $21.8 billion. The potential for consolidation in the banking sector is rising, with M&A activity expected to accelerate in the second half of 2025 amid stabilizing interest rates and easing policy uncertainty.
Still, uncertainty around Northern Trust’s openness to a deal and its strong emphasis on independence could stall any future proposal from BNY.