Cross border car traffic remains depressed
Canada’s cross border travel trends in November showed a clear continuation of recent patterns. Despite the pull of U.S. Thanksgiving and Black Friday shopping, many Canadians still chose not to travel south. New figures released by Statistics Canada on Wednesday confirm that concerns linked to higher U.S. tariffs have kept cross border trips at subdued levels for nearly a full year.
The agency reported that the number of cars returning to Canada after trips to the United States fell by 28.6 percent in November compared with the same month in 2024. This marked the eleventh consecutive month of year over year declines in cross border car traffic by Canadian residents. Travel in the opposite direction also weakened, with trips by U.S. residents into Canada down 11.5 percent compared with November 2024.
Taken together, the figures point to a sustained cooling in ground based cross border tourism. Businesses in border communities that rely on day trips and short stays from both Canadians and Americans continue to feel the impact of this reduced traffic.
Holiday spike could not offset broader declines
Although overall volumes remained lower than a year earlier, the U.S. Thanksgiving period did generate a noticeable, if temporary, increase in movement. Statistics Canada noted that daily arrivals from the United States averaged 50,200 between the Wednesday before U.S. Thanksgiving and Black Friday. This average was 97.6 percent higher than that observed for other Wednesday to Friday periods in November.
For Canadians returning home after the long weekend, the busiest day was Sunday, November 30. On that day, the number of cars coming back into Canada was 19.8 percent higher than the average for other Sundays in November. The pattern is consistent with typical holiday travel, as shoppers and visitors return home after a concentrated burst of activity.
However, the holiday surge was not enough to outweigh the broader monthly weakness. The November totals still reflected double digit declines, underscoring that tariff related caution and higher travel costs continue to influence decisions throughout the year.
Air travel shifts and international alternatives
The softness in cross border movement was also evident in the skies. Statistics Canada reported that the number of Canadians returning from the United States by air fell 19.3 percent in November compared with the same period in 2024. Arrivals to Canada by air from U.S. residents declined 12.6 percent year over year.
Economists suggest that several factors may be at work beyond tariffs alone. A weaker Canadian dollar against the U.S. currency, higher airfare costs, and a shift in consumer priorities toward saving rather than discretionary travel may all be contributing to reduced demand for U.S. trips. At the same time, travel patterns indicate that Canadians are not abandoning international travel entirely.
Arrivals to Canada from countries other than the United States increased 6.6 percent in November. The number of Canadians flying home from non U.S. destinations rose 11.7 percent compared with a year earlier. These figures point to a reallocation of travel budgets rather than a uniform decline, with more travelers choosing long haul or alternative destinations instead of traditional cross border trips.
Outlook for border communities and tourism
The sustained decline in U.S. related travel remains a concern for tourism operators, retailers, and hospitality businesses that depend on visitors from both sides of the border. If tariff related uncertainty and cost pressures continue into 2026, many border regions may face prolonged headwinds.
Industry groups are expected to watch upcoming data closely for any sign that cross border confidence is stabilizing. For now, the November report reinforces a clear message. The U.S. Thanksgiving holiday provided only a brief lift to traffic. The longer term trend still reflects caution among Canadian and American travelers when it comes to crossing the border.