Traders brace for possible August output hike by OPEC+
Oil prices edged lower on Friday in light U.S. holiday trading, as investors anticipated this weekend’s key OPEC+ meeting, where a potential increase in crude production for August is expected. Brent crude settled down 50 cents, or 0.7%, at $68.30 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 0.75% to $66.50.
The session saw limited activity due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, with investors largely in a holding pattern ahead of Saturday’s OPEC+ gathering, which was moved forward from Sunday. Despite the dip, both benchmarks ended the week higher, with Brent up 0.8% and WTI gaining 1.5%.
According to analysts, eight OPEC+ nations are expected to support a 411,000 barrels per day output increase for August, marking the fourth straight monthly hike. “If the group moves ahead as expected, oil balances for the second half of the year will likely need to be revised, pointing to a faster build-up in global reserves,” said Tamas Varga of PVM.
Phil Flynn of the Price Futures Group noted signs of profit-taking ahead of the meeting, as well as caution tied to U.S. economic policy. Investors are also monitoring the impact of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax and spending legislation, which is expected to be signed into law Friday.
Oil prices were further pressured by news that the U.S. could resume nuclear talks with Iran next week, potentially leading to increased Iranian oil supply. Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araqchi reaffirmed Tehran’s commitment to the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Trade uncertainty also returned to the fore as the 90-day pause on Trump’s global tariff hikes nears its July 9 expiration. EU diplomats said negotiations with Washington have stalled, and Brussels may seek to extend the current trade status to avoid further levies.
Amid these developments, Barclays raised its Brent forecast to $72 per barrel for 2025 and $70 for 2026, citing stronger-than-expected demand growth.