American households have so far absorbed 22% of the extra costs from President Donald Trump’s new wave of import tariffs. Goldman Sachs projects that share will surge to 67% by October if current pricing trends hold. The tariffs include a 10% blanket duty on all imports, additional rates for specific countries, and targeted product measures such as those on automobiles.
Businesses and Exporters Shouldered Early Costs
Until midyear, U.S. businesses carried roughly 64% of tariff-related costs, while foreign exporters absorbed about 14% by cutting prices to remain competitive. That dynamic is shifting as companies pass more of the burden to consumers.
Price Increases Already Evident
Goods heavily dependent on imports, such as household appliances and information processing equipment, are now 7.5 percentage points more expensive than they would have been without the tariffs. Goldman’s analysis, based on data through June, confirms that import-exposed categories have seen the sharpest price hikes.
Inflation Pressures Set to Grow
Goldman estimates tariffs have already added 0.20 percentage points to core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure. They expect another 0.16% increase in July and an additional 0.5% between August and December. This would push year-end core PCE inflation to 3.2%, well above the Fed’s 2% target. Without tariffs, inflation would be closer to 2.4%.
Holiday Season Price Hikes
Major companies, including Adidas and Walmart, have announced upcoming price increases. This could raise costs for electronics, vehicles, and other goods just as the holiday shopping season begins, reducing household purchasing power.
Government Revenue Signals Impact
Treasury data shows more than $100 billion in customs duties collected so far this year. Economists say this underscores that tariff costs are being paid somewhere in the supply chain- and increasingly by consumers.